One way to try to figure out what someone REALLY thinks.

I’m a big fan of the blog Marginal Revolution, so I was really looking forward to reading Tyler Cowen’s book, Discover Your Inner Economist: Using Incentives to Fall in Love, Survive Your Next Meeting, and Motivate Your Dentist.

And I wasn’t disappointed. This is just the kind of book I love, with lots of insights into human nature and explanations of why people (including me) behave the way they do.

Several sections jumped out at me, but one in particular was unusually compelling – about how to get people to reveal their true opinions.

As I've discussed in an earlier post, Daniel Gilbert’s fascinating book, Stumbling on Happiness, is all about “affective forecasting.” He explains how people make predictions about what will make them happy in the future, and why they tend sometimes to make mistakes. Say, by spending $300 on a big tattoo today, and ten years later, paying $6,000 to get it taken off.

Gilbert argues that the most effective way to predict what’s likely to make you happy in the future is to ask someone who is having that experience at the moment. For example, before signing up to work in a law firm, you’d ask people who are associates at law firms whether they like their jobs (the more similar such surrogates are to you, the more helpful their information is likely to be).

Gilbert maintains that although we all feel very idiosyncratic, we’re much more alike in our preferences than we imagine—so the experience of other people is the best guide to follow.

But sometimes when we ask an important question, we know that people might be reluctant to give a true opinion. Maybe they’re worried about angering someone else, or appearing unsophisticated, or maybe they feel uncomfortable with what they think.

Tyler Cowen made an observation that I think is absolutely fascinating, and one that provides a possible solution to this non-disclosure problem. He writes:

To get a person’s real opinion, ask what she thinks everyone else believes…If people truly hold a particular belief, they are more likely to think that others agree or have had similar experiences. For instance, if a man has had more than thirty sexual partners, he will more likely think that such behavior is common. After all, his life is one ‘data point,’ and that data point presumably weighs heavily in his mind…Furthermore the man with more than thirty partners probably knows a higher percentage of other people with thirty partners or more. This will further encourage him to make a high estimate of how many partners other people have had… [People] tend to assume that other people have had life histories at least somewhat similar to their own. When we talk about other people, we are often talking about ourselves, whether we know it ourselves.

So imagine that you’re considering sending your children to a particular summer camp. Asking your friend, “Are most families pleased with the camp experience?” instead of asking, “Were you pleased with the camp?” might elicit a better answer.

Or maybe you’re considering going to a particular doctor. A person might not want personally to express disloyalty, but if you said, “How do most patients feel about that doctor’s office?” you might hear more.

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A reader emailed me to say that, on the topic of making lists for keeping resolutions or working towards goals, he recommended a post on the blog LiteMind. If you're the kind of person who benefits from this kind of exercise (and if you are, you know it, and are itching to find another excuse to make a list!), check it out.

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Comments

[Megan]

This post made me laugh because I've been thinking a LOT about perspective lately (as well as personal opinion). First of all, thanks for sharing this great way to get to the bottom of what others actually think (if they're not inclined to share their true opinion offhand).

From a perspective standpoint, I always chuckle when I fail to recall that the world doesn't see or experience things exactly the way I do. For example, the Friday before Halloween, I went to a trick-or-treating event filled with kids in costumes alongside their parents. I got to hand out candy and play games like bobbing for apples, etc. The next day I was at the grocery store, and I saw a bunch of candy endcaps. I thought, "That's weird, none of the candy is on-sale. It's past Halloween!" Well, actually, Halloween hadn't even happened yet, but because I'd attended that trick or treating event, I was all done with the holiday. Why wasn't everyone else?!!

Anyway, thanks for the insight - I always love your posts.

[Matt]

Gretchen, I'm a long-time lurker. Thanks for your wonderful, consistent posts.

An ancillary point:

In the venture capital industry, we're often in the character evaluation business and we do a lot of reference calls. Instead of a standard, "What are this person's strengths/weaknesses?" question, it's often much more effective to ask something like, "In order for X to succeed, what skill sets do we need to surround him with?" Instead of demanding a reply that expounds upon a person's weaknesses directly, something which can create discomfort and inhibit candor, this kind of indirect ask tends to yield a discussion and anecdotes. Framing is hugely influential.

Best,
Matt

[ladybugblue]

Have you read _Mistakes Were Made (But Not by Me)_? In that book, the authors make a compelling case that people base their happiness with significant decisions on whatever they decided (being "right"), rather than on any sort of "objective" measure. And I would think this would hold true, whether people are self-reporting, or assessing what they think others feel. I could also think of just as many reasons for people to assign to the people around them opposite opinions to their own, as the same, depending on their motivations.

[Gretchen Rubin]

I love the idea of asking "For this person to succeed,what skill sets do we need to surround him/her with?" A terrific way of getting the kind of information you want, in a way that doesn't make people feel uncomfortable giving it. I bet you can read between the lines pretty quickly!

I haven't read the MISTAKES WERE MADE book, but I've heard about it. I'm off to check it out right now...